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The U.S. cattle herd is the smallest it’s been since the Truman administration. Fed cattle are trading at numbers that would have looked like a typo five years ago. And this week, drought is forcing the destocking conversation across the Dakotas, Nebraska, and West Texas. The same conversation happens every dry summer, but now each cow standing in that pasture is worth considerably more than the last time.

That math changes the cost of a bad decision. Sell too early and you leave money standing on grass that’s still there. Sell too late, into a market everyone else in the country is dumping into simultaneously, and you give it back at the sale barn. The difference between those two outcomes has always come down to information and timing. What’s different this year is that the information exists in forms it didn’t before, and the question of who controls it is becoming as important as the information itself.

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